Labour surges - but suffers Gaza effect
Keir Starmer in "listening" mode as some Muslim voters swing to Greens, Galloway and independents
“I know and you know that Zionism and the people within it have a lot of power and they are the elites in the world.”
These are the words of Akhmed Yaqoob, who won 70,000 votes in last week's West Midlands mayoral election, mainly from the region’s Muslim population.
Yaqoob, a criminal lawyer with 186,000 followers on TikTok, combined attacks on Labour over the Gaza issue with arguments about refuse collection, bus services and child poverty. He intends to stand for Parliament against Labour's most senior Muslim MP, Shabana Mahmood, in Birmingham Ladywood, and was backed by George Galloway.
But Yaqoob's surge, which almost cost them victory in their battle with the Tories in the region, was just one headache for Labour.
Because - despite the party making huge gains against the Tories - the local and mayoral elections saw the emergence of three political forces challenging Labour to its left (though as we'll see, “left” here is probably the wrong word):
Galloway's Workers Party of Britain won four council seats, (Rochdale, Calderdale and in Manchester's Longsight), mainly by attracting Muslim voters away from Labour.
The Green Party took major strides forward in Bristol, Norwich, Stroud and other progressive cities where - for a variety of reasons, including Gaza - Labour is shedding voters to its left.
Around 40 Muslim "independent" candidates won: including the entire group of ex-Labour councillors in Pendle, Lancashire, who had resigned over the party's stance on Gaza; a new group in Bradford; and enough councillors in Oldham to remove Labour's control of the council.
What's behind these advances?
It should be stressed that the vast majority of Britain’s Muslims continue to vote for mainstream parties, and occupy leading positions in them.
Indeed, there were many more Muslim councillors elected for Labour last week than for any of the groups above.
But the advance of of Galloway, the pro-Palestine Independents and the Greens, together with the success of the Aspire Party in Tower Hamlets, demonstrates the possibility that a new political force could emerge to challenge Labour - either during the coming general election or, more likely, under a Starmer premiership.
Keir Starmer himself is clearly taking the threat seriously. In an impromptu speech celebrating Richard Parker's tight victory in the West Midlands, he said:
"I say directly to those who may have voted Labour in the past, but felt on this occasion they couldn't, that across the West Midlands we are a proud and diverse community. I have heard you. I have listened. And I am determined to meet your concerns and to gain your respect and trust again in the future."
The critical issue is whether the forces to the left of Labour can, or even want to, combine to mount a Parliamentary electoral challenge over Gaza. What follows is a survey of the political dynamics:
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